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Limits to Growth
(Meadows, Meadows and Randers 1972)
Computing within Limits
• Computing within Limits aims to foster discussion on
the impact of present or future ecological, material,
energetic, and/or societal limits on computing.
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1 Me
2 My motivation
3 The spike and the peak
4 A world of limitations
5 (The road to) Limits
6 Wrap-up
This talk
1 Me
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Daniel Pargman, associate professor
• Department of Media Techology and Interaction Design &
• Center for Sustainable Communications (CESC)
• (Both at the School of Computer Science and Communication)
We do research and teach about ICT
and sustainabiltity
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Two conflicting views of the future
Things are really taking off now (getting better and better
all the time)
– Pace of technological innovation increasing, soon to reach the
singularity
We are at the peak now (things will get tougher and
tougher from here on)
– Global warming, resource depletion
– Peak oil, peak water, peak phosphorous (= peak food), peak X…
– Bardi (2009), “The spike and the peak”
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What types of pictures of the future…?
”It is easier to imagine the end of the world than
to imagine the end of capitalism.”
Fredric Jameson (2003)
Or, if we are lucky…
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4 A world of
limitations
The size of the economy is ultimately limited
by the fact that we live on a finite planet
Planetary ecosystem
(IPCC 2013)
Resources Pollution/waste
Input Output
The
economy
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No more low-hanging fruit
Peak Oil
• Peak oil refers to the point in time when production can
not increase and further extraction yields gradually
lower levels of production
• Peak oil can refer to a single oil well, an oil field, the
production of a whole country, or the production of all
the oil fields of al the world (Global Peak Oil)
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BP deep water oil spill
(Gulf of Mexico) April 2010
Richard Nixon (1973)
”There are only seven percent of the people of the
world living in the United States, and we use thirty
percent of all the energy. That isn’t bad; that is good.
That means we are the richest, strongest people in the
world and that we have the highest standard of living in
the world. That is why we need so much energy, and
may it always be that way.”
The US imported 10% of its oil in the early 1970s –
today it imports >65%
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Energy infrastructure transitions
"Changes in the world of energy are measured not in
months, not in years, but often in decades. The abrupt
transition from whale oil to kerosene took less than two
decades. In the history of energy substitutions, that’s a
duration of time akin to an eye blink"
The transition from wood to coal took 75 years
(1825-1900) – despite the fact that coal has many
characteristics that are superior.
The transition from whale oil to kerosene took 20 years
(19th century)
Energy vs computing infrastructure
“A thousand barrels a second” (Tertzakian 2007)
86 million barrels of oil/day
31 billion barrels of oil/year
Today’s energy infrastructure is rooted in
decisions made generations ago
We are equally dependent on a 145-year old multi-trillion
dollar oil infrastructure (supply chain) as we are on
the oil itself
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1 oil barrel =
159 liter
Energy
content =
25.000
hours of
physical
work
On our taken-for-granted
exponential-growth culture
“During the last two centuries we have know
nothing but exponential growth and in parallel
we have evolved what amounts to an
exponential-growth culture, a culture so heavily
dependent upon the continuance of exponential
growth for its stability that it is incapable of
reckoning with problems of non-growth.”
M King Hubbert, 1976
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Will good times come to an end?
Is it a coincidence that computers, internet has
come about in the age of cheap energy?
Are computers, internet built on the premise of
cheap energy?
What happens if energy will no longer be cheap?
Thinking about the future
Science fiction author William Gibson is known for
repeatedly having stated that “The future is already
here, it’s just not very evenly distributed”.
It makes just as much sense to state that "The collapse is
already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed."
What if the future is not to be found in Google’s research
labs but in contemporary use of ICT among unemployed
young adults in Greece?
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5 (The road to)
Limits
It’s all vanilla to me
• ”Vanilla sustainability” (Pargman & Eriksson 2013)
• Problems might be severe, but will somehow always be
manageable
• Ecological modernisation = full speed ahead, investing
in electric cars, Carbon Capture and Storage, Smart
Sustainable Cities, smart grids etc.
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• Raghavan, B. & Ma, J. (2011). Networking in the long
emergency. In Proceedings of the 2nd ACM SIGCOMM
workshop on Green networking.
• Tomlinson, B., Silberman, M., Patterson, D., Pan, Y., &
Blevis, E. (2012). Collapse informatics: augmenting the
sustainability & ICT4D discourse in HCI. In Proceedings of
the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing
Systems. ACM.
• Tomlinson, B., Patterson, D. J., Pan, Y., Blevis, E., Nardi, B.,
Silberman, S., Norton, J. & LaViola Jr, J. (2012). What if
sustainability doesn't work out?. Interactions, 19(6), 50-55.
A relief to then find:
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Collapse Informatics is a hard sell
• The term “Collapse” gets pushback
• Anthropologist-archaeologist Joseph Tainter (1988)
defines collapse as “a rapid, significant loss of an
established level of sociopolitical complexity” but to
him “rapid” means “no more than a few decades”.
We rebranded it -
“Computing within Limits”
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Why Limits is not Vanilla Sustainability
• LIMITS aims to foster discussion on the impact of
present or future ecological, material, energetic, and/or
societal limits on computing.
• A goal of this community is to impact society through
the design and development of computing systems in
the abundant present for use in a future of limits and/
or scarcity.
• (An Internet for hard times?)
6 Wrap-up
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https://computingwithinlimits.wordpress.com
Limits 2018
• ICT4S 2018 in Toronto May 14-18
• Main conf May 15-17 with workshops before and after
• Deadline for full papers = Nov 15
• Limits 2018 in Toronto May 13-14
• Separate co-located event but tightly coordinated with ICT4S
• Deadline for full papers = Feb 1
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Future of Limits (trajectory, goals)
• Venue for ideas papers, hothouse for ideas(?)
• Venue for ph.d. students to publish research that
would not be accepted elsewhere
• Influence HCI and related scientific communites
(ICT4D, crisis informatics)